Rafael Flores Jr. Is Hitting Like a Top-5 Catcher — And Nobody's Noticed

Rafael Flores Jr. is posting a .506 wOBA over the last seven days with a 95.3 mph average exit velocity, and he's rostered in just 10% of leagues. That's a market failure. The data is clear: this is one of the best waiver adds available right now at catcher.

WaiverScout has been tracking Flores since early August. We first flagged him as a watch on August 17 at 6% ownership, upgraded him to an Add Now on August 20, and have continued monitoring as his signal strengthened. This isn't a sudden blip — it's a trend that's been building for weeks, and the last seven days have pushed it into unmistakable territory.

The Rolling Window Tells the Story

Flores's trajectory across the rolling windows is what separates a hot streak from a legitimate breakout:

  • 7-day: .312 AVG, 2 HR, .506 wOBA, 20.0% BB%, 95.3 mph EV
  • 14-day: .378 AVG, 2 HR, .440 wOBA, 9.8% BB%, 91.2 mph EV
  • 30-day: .303 AVG, 4 HR, .373 wOBA, 8.4% BB%, 91.6 mph EV

The wOBA has climbed from .373 to .440 to .506 across each window. His walk rate has exploded to 20.0% over the last seven days, up from 8.4% over 30 days. That's not luck — that's a hitter who is seeing the ball better and refusing to chase. The improved plate discipline is the most encouraging piece here because it suggests the approach is evolving, not just the results.

The Statcast Data Backs It Up

This isn't a BABIP mirage. Flores is punishing baseballs. His average exit velocity sits at 95.3 mph over the last seven days, a significant jump from 91.2 mph over two weeks and 91.6 mph over 30 days. His hard-hit rate has been remarkably consistent — 46.7% over seven days, 47.0% over 14 days, and 50.7% over 30 days. He's consistently barreling the ball at a rate that produces real power output, and the four home runs over 83 plate appearances in the last month confirm it.

The strikeout rate at 30.0% over the last seven days is the one number to monitor. It's elevated compared to his 24.1% mark over 30 days. But the corresponding 20.0% walk rate more than compensates, and in a small recent window, a few extra K's don't override the quality-of-contact data that screams this is real.

The Ownership Window Is Closing

At 10% rostered with a +4% jump in the last week, Flores is moving — but he's still widely available. No major fantasy publications have flagged him yet, which means WaiverScout subscribers are ahead of the curve. That window won't last. Catcher is a wasteland in most leagues, and a player producing a .506 wOBA with this kind of exit velocity isn't going to stay at 10% ownership once the mainstream catches up.

He's been getting consistent playing time with 20 plate appearances over the last seven days and 41 over the last 14. Pittsburgh is giving him the reps, and he's rewarding them.

If you're comparing options at catcher, Flores is outproducing alternatives like Ben Rice and Liam Hicks on a per-plate-appearance basis. Even Salvador Perez owners should take note — Flores's dual eligibility at C and 1B adds roster flexibility that most catchers can't offer.

Verdict: Add Now

Rafael Flores Jr. is an Add Now. The rising wOBA trend across all three rolling windows, the elite-level exit velocity, and the surging walk rate all point in the same direction. We've been tracking this signal since August, and it has only strengthened. The 10% ownership is a gift. Go get him before your leaguemates figure it out.