Rafael Flores Jr. Is Heating Up Again — and Nobody's Paying Attention

Rafael Flores Jr. just posted a .495 wOBA over his last 7 days, nearly doubling his 30-day mark of .303. He's hitting .444 with a home run, a 10.0% walk rate, and an exit velocity of 92.6 mph. The catcher is available in 92% of leagues. This is a window.

WaiverScout Called This Early

We've been tracking Flores since early August. WaiverScout first flagged him as a watch on August 17 at just 6% rostered, then upgraded him to an add now on August 20 when the data supported a move. He cooled off, we appropriately deprioritized, and then re-flagged him on September 8 at 5% ownership. Now he's surging again — harder than before — and his ownership has only crept to 8%. Nobody else in the fantasy media landscape is talking about this player right now. This signal is ahead of the mainstream.

The Rolling Window Tells the Story

Zoom out and the progression is clear:

  • 30-day: .256 AVG, .303 wOBA, 5.7% BB%, 28.7% K% — a middling line buried by a rough stretch
  • 14-day: .417 AVG, .452 wOBA, 2 HR, 5.3% BB% — the bat woke up
  • 7-day: .444 AVG, .495 wOBA, 1 HR, 10.0% BB% — the plate discipline caught up to the contact quality

That walk rate jump from 5.7% to 10.0% is what separates a hot streak from a real approach change. Flores isn't just getting lucky — he's being more selective, and when he swings, he's doing damage. His 4-for-4 game on September 15 was the headline, but look at September 19: 2-for-3 with a walk and zero strikeouts. That's a disciplined hitter locking in.

Skills Check: What Statcast Says

The exit velocity supports the surge. Flores posted a 92.6 mph average EV over the last 7 days, up from 91.1 mph across the 30-day window. His 14-day hard-hit rate sits at 44.7%, and over 30 days it's 48% — both strong marks for a catcher. This isn't a BABIP mirage. The ball is coming off his bat with authority, and the results are following.

The one flag worth monitoring: his 7-day hard-hit rate dipped to 31.7%, which could indicate some sequencing luck in that small window. But the 14-day and 30-day hard-hit numbers remain robust, suggesting the underlying contact quality is real even if the most recent games included some well-placed singles rather than barrels.

The Opportunity Is There

Flores logged 20 plate appearances over the last 7 days and 38 over the last 14. That's consistent playing time, not a spot-start cameo. For a catcher — a position where four starts a week is a luxury — that volume matters. He's holding down regular at-bats in the Pittsburgh lineup, and at catcher and first base eligibility, he offers roster flexibility that deepens his fantasy value.

At 8% rostered with a +2% weekly gain, he's starting to move, but slowly. Compare that to options like Liam Hicks or Salvador Perez at the position — Flores's recent production rivals or exceeds what most rostered catchers are providing.

Verdict: Watch

The data is clear — Rafael Flores Jr. is producing at an elite clip with real skills backing it up. The .495 wOBA, the improved walk rate, and the exit velocity all point to a hitter figuring things out. The 30% strikeout rate in the 7-day window keeps this at a watch rather than a must-add — we want to see that stabilize closer to the 23.7% he showed over 14 days. But at 8% rostered with this trajectory, you need him on your radar immediately. If the strikeouts stay down and the playing time holds, this watch becomes an add fast. WaiverScout has been on this since August. Don't be late.