Nick Fortes: A Flicker of Life After Months of Nothing
Nick Fortes has been a serial resident of WaiverScout's deprioritize list — flagged there eight times since late May. But something shifted in the last week, and the algorithm has upgraded him to Watch for the first time since July 21. The numbers explain why: a .422 wOBA over his last 8 plate appearances, a 0.0% strikeout rate, and a 25.0% walk rate. That's a dramatically different hitter profile than the one who posted a .269 wOBA over 30 days.
The Rolling Window Tells the Story
Zoom out and you can see the trajectory forming. Over the last 30 days (28 PA), Fortes hit .200 with a 17.9% K rate and a 7.1% walk rate — replacement-level production from the catcher position. Not surprising for a guy sitting at 1% roster ownership.
Narrow to 14 days (14 PA), and things start to shift: .250 AVG, a .367 wOBA, with the K rate dropping to 14.3% and walks climbing to 14.3%. The hard-hit rate in this window jumps to 50.0% with an 88.0 mph average exit velocity.
Then the last 7 days (8 PA): that .422 wOBA, zero strikeouts, a 25.0% walk rate, and — crucially — a home run. The batting average is only .167, which tells you the production is coming from plate discipline and power, not batting average luck. That's a more sustainable skill combination than the reverse.
Skills Check: Cautious Optimism
The Statcast indicators offer some support but stop short of a full endorsement. Fortes is showing a 91.1 mph exit velocity over the last seven days, a meaningful jump from the 85.5 mph he posted over 30 days. His hard-hit rate of 38.9% in the most recent window is solid, though it actually dipped from the 50.0% he flashed over 14 days. That inconsistency is worth noting.
The disappearing strikeouts are the most intriguing piece. Going from 17.9% over 30 days to literally zero in 8 plate appearances is eye-catching, but 8 PA is a dangerously small sample. Early signs suggest an approach adjustment — the surging walk rate backs that up — but we need more data before declaring this real.
Why Nobody Else Is Talking About This
This signal isn't on anyone's radar yet. No major fantasy publication is writing about Fortes right now, and his ownership has been flat at 1% with no velocity change. That's the whole point of a Watch classification — you're monitoring before the crowd arrives, not chasing after it does.
WaiverScout has tracked Fortes through a long decline — from 7% ownership in late July down to 1% where he sits today, deprioritized nearly every cycle. The fact that our algorithm has now shifted him to Watch for the first time in almost two months means the underlying signals have genuinely changed, not just the box score.
Positional Context
Catcher is a wasteland, which lowers the bar for relevance. If you're rostering a streaky option like Drake Baldwin or looking for an alternative to underperformers, Fortes could be emerging as a short-term option if this trend continues. Premium catchers like Yainer Diaz obviously aren't being dropped, but in two-catcher leagues or deep formats, this is the kind of early signal that matters.
The Verdict: Watch
Do not add Nick Fortes yet. We have 14 plate appearances over 5 games — that's not enough to act on. But the combination of a rising wOBA, vanishing strikeouts, improved exit velocity, and a power event is worth monitoring closely over the next week. If the plate discipline holds and the hard contact stays elevated through another 15-20 PA, this moves from curiosity to actionable. For now, add him to your watch list and check back. WaiverScout will be tracking every at-bat.