Lars Nootbaar Is Barreling Everything — And Nobody's Paying Attention
Lars Nootbaar is hitting the ball as hard as anyone in baseball right now, rostered in just 5% of leagues, and the signal WaiverScout has been tracking is only getting stronger. If you're not watching him, you should be.
The Signal Is Strengthening
WaiverScout first flagged Nootbaar as a deprioritize back on June 7th, when his ownership sat at 4%. By June 11th, we upgraded him to watch. Now, eight days later, the data has sharpened in every meaningful direction. This is the trajectory our algorithm was built to identify — a player moving from noise to signal before the market catches up.
Rolling Window Breakdown
The 7-day line is loud: .333 AVG, .334 wOBA, 13.6% BB% across 22 plate appearances. But the real story isn't the batting average — it's what's happening underneath it. His hard-hit rate over the last seven days has spiked to 87.5% with an exit velocity of 97.6 mph. That's elite-tier contact quality, not a fluke.
Zoom out and the picture holds. Over the 14-day window (47 PA), Nootbaar has posted a .256 AVG with a .345 wOBA, 2 HR, and a 71.9% hard-hit rate at 95.5 mph EV. The 30-day numbers are nearly identical: .267 AVG, .346 wOBA, 68.3% HardHit%, 95.3 mph EV. The production isn't spiking and crashing — it's building. The batted-ball data has accelerated from strong to absurd over the most recent stretch, and the walk rate has ticked up from 13.2% over 30 days to 13.6% in the last seven. He's getting more selective, not less.
Skills Validation
The strikeout rate is the one flag worth monitoring — 27.3% K% over the last seven days, up from 24.5% over 30 days. That's not ideal. But context matters: when a hitter is posting an 87.5% hard-hit rate and 97.6 mph exit velocity, the contact he is making is doing significant damage. The walk rate provides a floor. And with 47 PA over a 14-day stretch representing a solid sample, this isn't a two-game mirage. The data is clear — this is real contact quality.
The Opportunity Is There
Nootbaar has logged 22 PA in the last seven days, confirming consistent playing time in the Cardinals' lineup. That's the critical box to check for any waiver target — talent without opportunity is irrelevant. He's getting the at-bats.
The Market Hasn't Moved
At 5% rostered with only a +1% change over the past week, the ownership velocity is stable. The broader fantasy community is starting to sniff around — Fantasy Baseball Today Express recently listed him as a waiver wire target, and RotoBaller flagged him as a potential stash. But at 5% rostered, the window is still wide open. If the hard-hit data sustains for another week, you'll be competing with the rest of your league to grab him.
Compare the profile to rostered outfielders like Christian Yelich or James Wood — Nootbaar's batted-ball metrics over this stretch rival anyone's. He's not a household name, and that's precisely why he's available.
Verdict: Watch
Lars Nootbaar is a firm watch. The hard-hit quality is elite. The walk rate is strong. The playing time is consistent. The strikeout rate needs to come down before he becomes a must-add, and the power (0 HR in the last seven days despite the exit velocity) needs to show up more consistently. But the underlying data says the production is coming. Add him to your watch list now, because the numbers back it up — and WaiverScout identified this trend before anyone else was looking.