Henry Davis: The Bat Speed Is Real, But the Playing Time Is a Problem
Henry Davis is hitting the ball harder than he has all season, and almost nobody has noticed. His 7-day exit velocity sits at 100.4 mph with a 66.7% hard-hit rate — a dramatic jump from his 30-day marks of 91.2 mph and 48.3%. That's the kind of underlying skill spike that precedes breakouts. But with a .111 AVG over his last 13 plate appearances and a playing time share that's trending the wrong direction, this remains a watch — not an add.
What's Changed in the Rolling Windows
The story is in the splits. Over the last 30 days, Davis posted a .240 wOBA with a 48.3% hard-hit rate — unrosterable numbers by any standard. But zoom into the 14-day window and you see the shift: a .320 wOBA, 68% hard-hit rate, 99 mph average exit velocity, and two home runs in 26 PA. His 7-day wOBA of .280 is a slight dip from the 14-day mark, but the contact quality has actually intensified — exit velocity climbing from 99 to 100.4 mph.
The plate discipline evolution is the most compelling piece. Davis's walk rate has surged from 12.9% over 30 days to 30.8% over his last 13 PA, while his strikeout rate has ticked down from 16.1% to 15.4%. That's a hitter who's being more selective and making better decisions in the box. Whether that walk rate is sustainable is another question entirely — 30.8% is extreme — but the direction matters.
The Playing Time Problem
Here's the catch. CBS Sports recently reported that Davis is losing at-bats to Joey Bart, sitting for the fourth time in a recent stretch. That lines up with what we see in the data: just 13 PA over his last 7 days. A catcher who sits half the time needs to be elite when he plays to justify a roster spot, and a .111 batting average — even with monster exit velocities — doesn't clear that bar yet.
Pitcher List highlighted his two-homer game on May 1, noting it as a flash of life in an otherwise brutal season. That game — 2-for-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI, a walk — remains his best output in our tracking window, and it's the primary driver of his 14-day numbers looking respectable.
WaiverScout Has Been Tracking This
We first flagged Davis as an add now back on March 23 when he had 0.4% roster ownership. The signal weakened through April, and we correctly downgraded him to deprioritize across three consecutive signals. On May 1 — the day he launched two homers — we moved him back to watch. The algorithm is picking up real skill improvement, but it's not enough yet to override the playing time concerns and tiny sample size.
Ownership Window
At 0% rostered with no ownership velocity, Davis is completely free in every league. That's fine for now. If Pittsburgh commits to giving him four or more starts per week, the calculus changes fast. A catcher with a 100.4 mph exit velocity and 66.7% hard-hit rate who walks more than he strikes out is a fantasy asset waiting to happen — if the opportunity materializes.
If you need catcher help now, Carter Jensen, Will Smith, and Dillon Dingler are safer options with clearer paths to everyday at-bats.
Verdict: Watch
Early signs suggest Davis could be emerging from his season-long slump, but 26 PA is nowhere near enough to act on — especially when the playing time picture is murky. The bat speed and plate discipline improvements are real and worth monitoring. If he strings together 40-50 PA at these exit velocities with consistent starts, he'll move to an add. For now, keep him on your watchlist and check back next week.