Francisco Alvarez Is Flashing Signs of Life — But the Strikeout Problem Hasn't Gone Away
Francisco Alvarez just hit two home runs in a single game on September 4th, and his 7-day wOBA has spiked to .379 after sitting at a brutal .199 over the past 30 days. At 17% rostered and climbing nowhere, nobody in your league is talking about him. That's exactly why WaiverScout is flagging him now.
The Signal: A Violent Uptick in Production
The 7-day versus 30-day splits tell a clear story of a hitter who may be turning a corner. Alvarez's wOBA has jumped from .199 over 30 days to .379 over the last week. His average has climbed from .134 to .250. The strikeout rate, which had ballooned to an almost unusable 48.6% over 30 days, has dropped to 35.3% in the last 7 days. That's still elevated — let's not pretend otherwise — but the direction matters. A 13-percentage-point drop in K% is not noise.
Both of his home runs in the rolling windows came in that September 4th explosion: 2-for-4 with two bombs and zero strikeouts. That single game is doing a lot of heavy lifting in the 7-day line. But the game before (September 5th) and after (September 7th) show contact, with hits in two of those three contests. The data says Alvarez is at least making more competitive at-bats.
Skills Check: Hard Contact Is Real, But Context Matters
Alvarez's exit velocity sits at 90.0 mph over the last 7 days, with a 47.9% hard-hit rate. Zoom out to 14 days and that hard-hit rate actually jumps to 61.5% at 90.8 mph EV — suggesting that even when he wasn't getting results earlier in the stretch, he was still squaring balls up. The 30-day hard-hit rate of 54.6% at 89.6 mph EV confirms that the contact quality has been there throughout. Alvarez has the raw power. The question has always been whether he can get to it consistently enough given the swing-and-miss.
A 35.3% strikeout rate is still a liability in most formats. But for a catcher with this kind of power ceiling, it's workable — especially if the trend continues downward.
WaiverScout Has Been Tracking This
This isn't our first flag on Alvarez. WaiverScout identified him as an add now back on August 12th at 25% rostered, and again on July 29th at 26%. When the strikeout rate spiraled, we correctly downgraded him to deprioritize on August 19th and 27th. Ownership has since bled from 27% down to 17%. The managers who dropped him during that rough patch created the window that may be opening now.
No major fantasy publication is covering this uptick yet. This signal is ahead of the mainstream conversation.
Ownership Window
At 17% rostered with stable velocity, Alvarez is sitting on waivers in the vast majority of leagues. The roster percentage hasn't moved despite the recent power surge, which means you have time — but not unlimited time. If he strings together another multi-homer week, the algorithms at every platform will push him into trending lists and that window slams shut.
If you're rostering a replacement-level catcher over Alvarez right now, compare options like Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno — neither offers this kind of power upside at the position.
Verdict: Watch
The classification is Watch, not add — and here's why. The 7-day surge is real and backed by hard-contact data, but 17 plate appearances is still a narrow lens. The 30-day strikeout rate of 48.6% reminds you what the floor looks like. We need to see if the K% continues trending down over the next 7-10 days. If it holds in the mid-30s or drops further while the hard-hit metrics sustain, this becomes an add now in a hurry. Put him on your watchlist today. Be ready to move before your leaguemates notice.