Francisco Alvarez Is Hitting the Ball Harder Than Ever — and He's Still Available in 62% of Leagues

Francisco Alvarez is mashing, and the underlying data says it's real. Over the last seven days, the Mets' 24-year-old catcher is slashing .316 with a .385 wOBA, a 62.5% hard-hit rate, and an average exit velocity of 94.7 mph. This isn't a mirage built on bloop singles. The ball is coming off his bat with authority, his plate discipline is improving, and he's locked into consistent playing time. At 38% rostered and climbing fast, this is your window.

WaiverScout Called This Early — and the Signal Has Flipped

Transparency matters. WaiverScout had Alvarez classified as deprioritize as recently as March 31, and again on March 22 when his ownership sat at just 17.8%. The numbers weren't there yet. Now they are. His ownership has surged +18.7% in the last week alone, and our algorithm has upgraded him to Add Now. When the data changes, the recommendation changes. That's how this works.

The Rolling Windows Tell the Story

Zoom out and watch the trend build:

  • 30-day: .302 AVG, .417 wOBA, 54.2% HardHit%, 90.7 mph EV, 17.6% K%, 9.8% BB%
  • 14-day: .294 AVG, .402 wOBA, 59.1% HardHit%, 92.3 mph EV, 20.0% K%, 10.0% BB%
  • 7-day: .316 AVG, .385 wOBA, 62.5% HardHit%, 94.7 mph EV, 17.4% K%, 13.0% BB%

The batting average and wOBA have been consistently strong across all three windows, but look at the quality-of-contact trend. His hard-hit rate has climbed from 54.2% to 62.5% over the last month, and his exit velocity has jumped from 90.7 mph to 94.7 mph. That's not random variance — that's a hitter who's finding his timing and attacking the ball with increasing force.

The Plate Discipline Is Trending Right

What makes this signal especially convincing is the discipline improvement. Alvarez's walk rate has climbed to 13.0% over the last seven days, up from 9.8% over the 30-day window, while his strikeout rate has actually ticked down to 17.4%. He's being more selective and making better decisions in the box. His last five games show a guy who's taking his walks (3 BB in 5 games) while still producing hard contact when he swings — including a 2-for-4, 1-HR performance on April 11.

The Broader Fantasy World Is Catching On

The Athletic noted Alvarez's 30-home-run ceiling just last week, and Yahoo Sports flagged his second-half surge from last season as a 2026 fantasy signal. The industry is waking up. But at 38% rostered, the majority of leagues still have him sitting on waivers. That gap between recognition and action is where you gain an edge.

Positional Scarcity Makes This a No-Brainer

Catcher is a wasteland. If you're streaming the position or stuck with a replacement-level option, Alvarez changes your roster construction. Compare the alternatives: Will Smith and William Contreras are locked into rosters at much higher ownership. Carter Jensen is an option, but Alvarez's combination of power, discipline, and Statcast quality is rare at the position. A 94.7 mph exit velocity and 62.5% hard-hit rate from a catcher? That's elite-tier contact quality.

Verdict: Add Now

The data is clear. Francisco Alvarez is hitting the ball harder each week, walking more, striking out less, and playing every day. His 40 PA over the last 14 days gives us a solid enough sample to trust what we're seeing, and the underlying skills metrics validate the surface stats. At 38% rostered with surging ownership velocity, this window is closing fast. Add him now before it does.