Steven Matz is sitting at 2.9% owned with a 1.43 FIP, 36.4% strikeout rate, and a 1.50 ERA over his last three starts — that is the most egregious oversight on today's waiver wire.

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Seth Lugo — P, KC

Lugo's strikeout rate has jumped from 21.5% over the past 30 days to 33.3% over the last seven, and his FIP sits at a razor-sharp 1.50 — that's not noise, that's a pitch mix clicking. He's posting 12.6 K/9 with a 3.6 ERA across his last 5.0 innings. Ownership is actually cooling at 30.7% (down 2.4% over seven days), which means the window to add before the crowd catches on is right now.

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Bryce Elder — P, ATL

Elder's ownership has exploded +24.6% in seven days to 33.2%, and the underlying data justifies every bit of it: 1.24 FIP, 33.3% strikeout rate, and a 0.00 ERA over 7.0 innings. The sample is only two games, so wait for one more start before committing roster space, but don't wait too long.

Kodai Senga — P, NYM

Senga is quietly one of the better values still on the board at 40.9% owned — a 1.65 FIP and 34.0% strikeout rate across 11.7 innings is the healthiest early-season stretch you could ask for from him. If he's available in your league, the 12.31 K/9 and 3.08 ERA over two starts make him an immediate add candidate, not just a watch.

Steven Matz — P, TB

Matz's strikeout rate has surged from 23.0% over 30 days to 36.4% over the past seven, his FIP is 1.43, and he's allowing nothing — 1.50 ERA, 12.0 K/9 across 6.0 innings. At 2.9% owned, this is the clearest free-square on the board today.

Kyle Freeland — P, COL

Yes, he pitches in Colorado — and his FIP is still 1.30 with a 27.3% strikeout rate that's risen sharply from 16.9% over 30 days. The 1.8 ERA and 10.8 K/9 across three starts demand at least a watchful eye, especially at 1.1% owned in all formats.

Brock Burke — P, CIN

Burke is posting a 54.5% strikeout rate — up from 28.6% over 30 days — with a 0.67 FIP and 0.00 ERA across five appearances, generating 14.59 K/9. He's a reliever, 0.3% owned, and almost certainly available everywhere; the strikeout rate spike alone makes him worth a speculative add in deeper leagues.

Gabriel Arias — SS, CLE

Arias is hitting the ball with authority — 103.0 mph average exit velocity, 90.0% hard-hit rate — and the results are showing up: .312 average, 2 HR, and a .466 wOBA over five games. At 0.6% owned, he's a near-zero-cost flier for any manager who needs shortstop depth.

Sam Moll — P, CIN

Moll's strikeout rate has jumped from 20.0% to 37.5% over the past seven days, he's posted a 1.80 FIP, and his ERA sits at 0.00 across five appearances. He's a speculative add at 0.1% owned, particularly if Burke is already gone.

Calvin Faucher — P, MIA

A 45.5% strikeout rate, 1.77 FIP, 15.0 K/9, and 0.00 ERA across five outings — Faucher is dominating in relief and costs nothing at 0.5% owned. Watch for a save opportunity or a closing role developing in Miami before pulling the trigger.

Masataka Yoshida — LF, BOS

Yoshida is making more contact (strikeout rate down to 11.1% from 14.7%) and drawing more walks (27.8% from 23.5%), hitting .308 with a .427 wOBA over five games. The exit velocity at 97.4 mph with 72.9% hard contact is encouraging — watch for the power to reawaken before adding.

Iván Herrera — C, STL

Herrera has 27 PA over the last seven days, a .421 wOBA (up from .304 over 30 days), and a walk rate surging to 29.6%. The 92.7 mph exit velocity is serviceable, and at catcher — where 10.3% owned still leaves him widely available — he's worth targeting in two-catcher formats now.

Cody Laweryson — P, MIN

The FIP of 1.90 and 10.8 K/9 are legitimate signals, but the 5.4 ERA in 5.0 innings suggests the results haven't caught up to the underlying data yet. Monitor one more start before adding; the peripherals are interesting enough to keep on your radar at 0% owned.

Gary Sánchez — C, MIL

Sánchez has a .552 wOBA, 101.3 mph exit velocity, 83.3% hard-hit rate, and 2 HR over five games — with his strikeout rate dropping from 33.3% to 27.3%. At 1.4% owned, this is a legitimate catcher streamer with real upside if the contact gains hold.

Gavin Sheets — LF, SD

Sheets is hitting .375 with a .415 wOBA over five games, his strikeout rate has cratered from 21.2% to 11.8%, and he's making harder contact (91.6 mph EV). The question is whether a platoon role in San Diego limits his value; watch his lineup deployment before adding at 3.5% owned.

Jeremiah Estrada — P, SD

Estrada's FIP is 0.60 with a 38.5% strikeout rate and 0.00 ERA across five appearances, generating 11.25 K/9. He's been trending in the right direction at 18.6% owned — if he's available in your league, he's closer to an add than a watch.

Stream of the Day

Steven Matz is the stream of the week and it's not particularly close. His strikeout rate has spiked 13.4 percentage points over the last seven days relative to his 30-day baseline, his FIP is 1.43, he's striking out batters at a 36.4% clip with a 1.50 ERA across three starts, and he is owned in fewer than 3% of leagues. That combination — elite process numbers, zero ERA drag, and near-zero ownership — is the definition of a streamable free agent. Add him before Tuesday night and start him this week.

Ownership Movers

Bryce Elder is the week's biggest mover, surging +24.6% to 33.2% ownership — and the data justifies the panic-add. A 1.24 FIP and 0.00 ERA through two starts is legitimately elite, even on a small sample.

Kodai Senga is up 2.5% to 40.9%, which feels like it should be higher given his 1.65 FIP and 34.0% strikeout rate. He's being undervalued relative to what he's producing early.

Steven Matz (+0.5% to 2.9%), Kyle Freeland (+0.3% to 1.1%), and Brock Burke (+0.2% to 0.3%) are barely registering movement despite strong underlying numbers. Matz in particular should be 10x his current ownership given the data on display.

Quick Hits

  • Brock Burke's 54.5% strikeout rate over the last seven days is the single highest figure among all pitchers in today's report — and it's backed by a 0.67 FIP across five appearances.
  • Calvin Faucher leads all relievers tracked today with 15.0 K/9, a 45.5% strikeout rate, and a 1.77 FIP — all at 0.5% owned.
  • Gabriel Arias's 103.0 mph average exit velocity is the highest among all hitters in today's data set; the 90.0% hard-hit rate tells the same story — this is legitimate power contact, not a BABIP mirage.
  • Gary Sánchez's .552 wOBA is the highest among all batters in today's report. Two catchers with legitimate underlying data — Sánchez and Iván Herrera — are sitting under 11% owned combined.
  • Kodai Senga's 11.7 innings over the past seven days is the heaviest workload among all Watch List pitchers, giving his 1.65 FIP and 34.0% strikeout rate the most meaningful sample size of the group.