Brice Matthews: The Underlying Numbers Are Shifting — Time to Pay Attention
Brice Matthews has been a serial "deprioritize" in WaiverScout's system for nearly two months, and honestly, he earned it. But something changed over the last seven days, and the data is clear enough to upgrade him to Watch status. The Houston second baseman/outfielder isn't a must-add — not yet — but the process indicators are moving in the right direction, and at 2% rostered, this is exactly when you want to start watching.
What Changed in the Rolling Windows
The surface stats don't jump off the page. A .200 average over the last seven days with zero home runs and zero stolen bases isn't going to get anyone excited. But dig one layer deeper and the shift becomes obvious.
Matthews' strikeout rate dropped from 28.6% over 30 days to 27.3% over the last seven. His walk rate jumped from 6.1% to 9.1% in the same comparison window. That's a meaningful plate discipline improvement — he's controlling the zone better and making pitchers work. Over 22 plate appearances in the last week, he's showing a more patient, selective approach that wasn't there before.
The wOBA tells a more cautious story — just .223 over seven days compared to .243 over 30 days — but wOBA is lagging when the batted ball quality is this loud.
The Batted Ball Data Is Real
This is where the signal gets interesting. Matthews' hard hit rate surged to 66.7% over the last seven days, up from 45.6% over 30 days and 47.6% over 14 days. His exit velocity climbed to 91.2 mph from 84.8 mph on the month and 83.5 mph over 14 days. That's not a marginal uptick — that's a fundamentally different quality of contact.
The results haven't caught up yet, which is exactly why he's still at 2% rostered. But when a player is hitting the ball that much harder while simultaneously walking more and striking out less, the regression toward better outcomes is a matter of when, not if. This is real.
WaiverScout's Track Record on Matthews
We first flagged Matthews as an "add now" back on March 25, when he was rostered in just 0.3% of leagues. That early signal was premature — the production didn't sustain, and we correctly downgraded him to "deprioritize" across six consecutive signals from April through late May. We don't chase hope. But this upgrade to Watch reflects genuine underlying change across a solid 40-PA sample over five games. The numbers back it up.
Ownership Window
At 2% rostered with zero ownership velocity, nobody is moving on Matthews right now. The dynasty community has him on their radar — Razzball recently profiled him as an up-and-coming dynasty asset — but redraft managers have largely abandoned him after a rough April and early May. That creates a window. If these batted ball gains translate to even a modest uptick in production over the next week, the ownership spike will follow quickly.
For deeper league managers looking at alternatives, A.J. Ewing and Angel Martínez are names in the same positional tier, but neither is showing the same kind of hard-hit surge that Matthews has flashed over the last seven days.
The Verdict: Watch
Don't add Brice Matthews yet. The .200 average and zero counting stats over the last week aren't actionable in most formats. But the combination of a 66.7% hard hit rate, 91.2 mph exit velocity, improving plate discipline, and consistent playing time in the Houston lineup makes him a legitimate monitoring target. If the exit velocity holds and the BABIP catches up — and it should — this Watch classification won't last long. Add him to your shortlist now and be ready to move before the 2% becomes 15%.