Andrew Vaughn's Batted Ball Data Is Flashing — But the Sample Demands Patience
Andrew Vaughn is barreling everything he touches right now, and at 26% rostered, the window to act could be narrow. But with only 28 plate appearances of signal to work with, this is a watch — not a sprint to the wire.
The Signal: Elite Contact Quality Over the Last Week
Vaughn's 7-day batted ball numbers are impossible to ignore: a 75% hard-hit rate and 96.8 mph exit velocity paired with a .411 wOBA. That's the kind of quality contact profile that precedes power surges. He's hitting .286 over his last 17 PA with a balanced 17.6% K-rate and 17.6% BB-rate — the selectivity is as encouraging as the authority.
Zoom out slightly and the picture gets more complicated. Over 14 days (28 PA), his average drops to .182 and his wOBA falls to .299, though his exit velocity still sits at a respectable 93.2 mph and his hard-hit rate remains a strong 62.5%. The gap between his 7-day and 14-day lines tells us the first week of that stretch was rough, and the recent surge has dramatically pulled the trend line up.
The 30-Day View Is What Makes This Interesting
Over 72 PA in the last 30 days, Vaughn is slashing .328 with a .421 wOBA, an 18.1% walk rate, and an 11.1% strikeout rate. That plate discipline profile is legitimate. The 30-day hard-hit rate of 40.5% and 89 mph exit velocity, however, sit well below his recent 7-day marks — suggesting the contact quality is escalating, not just holding steady. That's the trend WaiverScout's algorithm is keying on.
WaiverScout Has Been Tracking This
This isn't the first time Vaughn has appeared on our radar. We flagged him as an add now back on June 8 at 28% ownership, and managers who acted on that call caught his .328 rolling month. We downgraded him to deprioritize on June 26 when his 14-day numbers cratered — a correct call at the time, as his average dipped to .182. Now the batted ball data is surging again, and we're moving him back to watch. The volatility is real, but the underlying skills keep resurfacing.
What the Industry Is Saying
Yahoo's waiver wire column recently highlighted Vaughn's starting job and power upside at a similar roster rate, noting he was dropped in many leagues. FantasyPros recently credited him with a three-run double against the Reds. The industry is starting to notice, but conviction remains low. That's the kind of gap WaiverScout exists to exploit.
Ownership Window
At 26% rostered with a stable ownership velocity (just +-1% over the past week), there's no rush-to-add pressure here. But if this hard-hit quality sustains for another week, expect that number to move fast. Managers in deeper leagues should have him on their short list. In shallower formats, you can afford to wait — but keep checking back.
If you're looking at the 1B landscape, compare him to names like Spencer Torkelson, Matt Olson, or TJ Rumfield — all rostered at higher rates but not necessarily producing this caliber of batted ball data right now.
Verdict: Watch
Early signs suggest Vaughn could be emerging as a viable fantasy asset again. The 96.8 mph exit velocity and 75% hard-hit rate over his last 17 PA are elite, and his 30-day walk rate of 18.1% shows a patient hitter who isn't chasing. But 28 PA is not enough to commit a roster spot in standard leagues. Monitor his next 7-10 games closely. If the hard-hit numbers hold above 50% and the exit velocity stays north of 93 mph, this moves from watch to add quickly. WaiverScout will be the first to tell you when.