Alex Freeland: One Big Game Flashes the Tools, but the Sample Demands Patience

Alex Freeland has bounced on and off WaiverScout's radar since early April — and after a 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI explosion on May 31st, the signal is pulsing again. A .437 wOBA over his last 7 days is eye-catching, but context matters: we're talking about 9 plate appearances. This is a player to watch, not a player to chase. Yet.

What Changed in the Rolling Windows

The 7-day and 14-day lines are identical here — both built on just 9 PA — showing a .250 AVG, 1 HR, a .437 wOBA, an 11.1% K rate, and an 11.1% BB rate. Compare that to his 30-day numbers across 34 PA: .241 AVG, 2 HR, a .359 wOBA, a 20.6% K rate, and a 14.7% BB rate. The strikeout rate dropping from 20.6% to 11.1% is the most interesting trend, though it's driven almost entirely by that May 31st game where he struck out just once in four plate appearances. Still, a player who was punching out at a 20.6% clip over a month and then tightening the zone — even briefly — is at least showing the capacity for improvement.

Skills Validation: The Statcast Data Tells a Bigger Story

This is where the Freeland signal gets genuinely interesting. Over the last 7 days, his hard-hit rate sits at 66.7% with an average exit velocity of 95.2 mph. Over 30 days? Those numbers crater to 35.4% hard-hit rate and 84.1 mph EV. That's an 11 mph jump in exit velocity and a near-doubling of hard contact. If you're looking for a reason to believe the May 31st breakout wasn't noise, the quality-of-contact data is your strongest argument. A 95.2 mph average exit velocity suggests real bat speed and impact power — the kind of foundation that supports a wOBA north of .400 if sustained.

The problem? It's 9 plate appearances. That 66.7% hard-hit rate could be two or three well-struck balls in a tiny window. Early signs suggest something is clicking mechanically for the 24-year-old, but we need more reps to know if it's a gear shift or a blip.

Ownership Window and Roster Context

Freeland is rostered in just 1% of leagues, and ownership velocity is stable — meaning nobody is rushing to add him. That's actually the opportunity. If this contact quality holds over another week or two, the pickup wave will come fast. CBS Sports noted his third home run on May 31st, and RotoWire has been tracking his progress, but he's far from a consensus add. WaiverScout first flagged Freeland back on April 26th as a watch candidate, then deprioritized him through a rough early-May stretch where he went 0-for-10 with 4 strikeouts across four games. The algorithm was right to pull back — and right to resurface him now.

With multi-position eligibility at 2B, 3B, and SS, Freeland offers roster flexibility that amplifies his value if the bat catches up. He's playing for a Dodgers lineup that manufactures opportunity, and he doesn't need to be a star to produce useful fantasy counting stats in that context. At his position, names like JJ Wetherholt, Brooks Lee, and Chase Meidroth command far more attention, but Freeland's Statcast flash over the past week could be an emerging signal worth monitoring alongside those players.

Verdict: Watch

Do not add Alex Freeland yet in standard leagues. The 9 PA sample is simply too thin to act on. But add him to your watchlist immediately. The exit velocity spike to 95.2 mph, the 66.7% hard-hit rate, and the strikeout rate improvement are early signs of something that could be emerging. If his next 15-20 PA maintain this contact quality, the classification moves up. WaiverScout has been watching this player since April — and for the first time, the underlying data matches the potential.