A.J. Ewing's Bat Is Waking Up — And the Numbers Back It Up

A.J. Ewing just posted a .415 wOBA over the last seven days, a massive jump from his .289 mark over the trailing 30 days. That's not a fluke blip from one lucky game — it's 23 plate appearances of legitimate offensive production, and the underlying approach metrics suggest something real has changed.

The Signal: Better Plate Discipline Is Driving Results

Start with the strikeout rate. Ewing whiffed at a 29.5% clip over the last 30 days — a number that made him hard to trust in fantasy lineups. Over the last seven days? That's plummeted to 17.4%. At the same time, his walk rate has nearly doubled, jumping from 7.4% (30D) to 13.0% (7D). That's not a guy getting lucky on balls in play. That's a hitter who is seeing the ball better, swinging at better pitches, and making more disciplined decisions in the box.

The rolling windows tell a clear story of improvement:

  • 7D: .300 AVG | .415 wOBA | 17.4% K% | 13.0% BB%
  • 14D: .256 AVG | .329 wOBA | 22.7% K% | 9.1% BB%
  • 30D: .253 AVG | .289 wOBA | 29.5% K% | 7.4% BB%

Every trend line is moving in the right direction. The batting average is up, the strikeouts are down, the walks are up, and the wOBA has spiked accordingly. With 44 PA over his last five games, this is a solid enough sample to trust directionally.

Skills Check: What Statcast Says

The hard-hit rate sits at 44.4% over the last seven days, consistent with his 45.0% over 14 days and up from 41.1% over 30 days. Ewing is making quality contact at a steady rate. His exit velocity of 87.1 mph over the last week is slightly below his 14-day (89.7 mph) and 30-day (89.9 mph) marks, which is worth monitoring. But combined with the improved plate discipline, the contact quality is enough to sustain above-average offensive output. The power is there too — he's got a homer in the last seven days, and his 30-day line includes 5 stolen bases, giving him a multi-category profile that adds roster value.

WaiverScout Saw This Coming

We first flagged Ewing back on May 24 as a deprioritize when his ownership sat at 36% — the numbers didn't justify the hype at that point. By June 12, we upgraded him to a watch at 18% ownership as the early signals of this approach change began to emerge. Now the data has only strengthened. The industry noticed Ewing early — The Athletic was asking whether he could save fantasy teams back in May, and he was generating waiver wire buzz right after his call-up. But ownership has since cooled to 16%, down slightly over the past week. That creates a window.

The Opportunity

Ewing logged 23 PA over the last seven days, confirming consistent playing time in the Mets lineup. With 2B and OF eligibility, he offers roster flexibility that players like Jose Altuve or Fernando Tatis Jr. provide at the top of the position — though obviously at a fraction of the cost. At 16% rostered, he's widely available.

Verdict: Watch

A.J. Ewing is a watch, not an add — yet. The plate discipline improvements are real and the playing time is there, but we want to see the exit velocity tick back up and the strikeout rate hold below 20% for another week before pulling the trigger. If these trends continue through his next 30 PA, this becomes an add in all formats. Get him on your shortlist now. The data is clear — something has clicked, and at 16% rostered, you'll have time to act before the crowd does.